Italy has made the decision to withdraw from China’s grandiose Belt and Road initiative (BRI), four years after it was the only country in the G7 to do so. The government led by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has informed Beijing of its decision, which far-right leaders interpret as yet another sign that they should keep their distance from China.
This development coincides with the recent EU-China meeting, which did not go well for the dynamics of the relationship, with European leaders voicing worries over President Xi Jinping’s policies.
Italy’s decision to withdraw from the Belt and Road Initiative appears to have been driven by shifting geopolitical dynamics as much as the project’s modest economic benefits. Since the beginning, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has opposed the choice, claiming that the previous administration joined the BRI merely to acquire political clout from Beijing.
Professor Harsh V. Pant, Vice President of Studies and Foreign Policy at the Observer Research Foundation, described the current state of affairs between China and the West as a “real crisis for China” and called it such. According to Professor Pant, the action shows how Europe’s objectives are shifting and that the nations now want to deal with China according to their own terms.
“There is no doubt that Italy’s decision to leave the Belt and Road Initiative demonstrates the total breakdown of political trust between China and Europe. Professor Pant stated that Italy used to have one of the most benevolent attitudes toward China. However, recent events have shown a sharp reversal in these sentiments, which highlights the difficulty China faces in Europe today as, with rare exceptions, Western confidence in China is rapidly eroding.
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The action illustrates how Europe’s interests are shifting, and as we’ve seen, the West now negotiates with China according to its own rules. The EU-China Summit and the meeting between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping serve as further evidence that the West is unwilling to back down on important issues,” he continued.
The expert brought up China’s misguided attempt to split the US and Europe and its challenges in handling them during the financial crisis.
For once, China made a concerted effort to split Europe and the US, but after that failed, it is now attempting to explore how far it can cooperate with Europe given its weak economy. Despite the fact that the BRI is widely adopted in other regions of the world, Pant stated that China’s stance toward the West is in serious danger.
Italy’s economy has not seen significant growth in exports as a result of the BRI, at least not in terms of numbers. The reports state that after entering the BRI, Italy’s exports to China climbed from 14.5 billion euros to 18.5 billion euros; however, China’s exports to Italy increased from 33.5 billion euros to 50.9 billion euros, which is far better than Italy’s exports to Italy.
Nonetheless, analysts persist in highlighting that Italy’s choice to pull out of the massive infrastructure undertaking is a political one, signifying China’s standing in the existing geopolitical structure.
“I would suggest that a country’s actions are determined by its own strategic choices. Italy is the same situation. Such a choice is always political. The degree to which it serves Italian domestic politics is still up for debate, according to Dr. Martand Jha, Doctoral Fellow in Russian and Central Asian Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University’s School of International Studies.
The decision to end the BRI coincides with a discernible increase in India and Italy’s top-level engagements. Given that the ambitious Chinese project crosses through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and that New Delhi has opposed the initiative from its inception, India would be pleased with Italy’s decision to leave the BRI.
The growth is in line with India’s positive relations with Italy, as the statistics also show. During the fiscal year 2021–2022, India’s bilateral trade increased significantly to a total of $13.2 billion, representing a growth rate of more than 50% over the previous financial year.
It is too soon to tell, but Italy’s decision to pull out of the project shows the caution they are exercising with China. As the West has seen, India benefits from this prudence as it is a rising and dependable partner in Asia.
